The impact of government health expenditure on malaria, infant and maternal mortality rates in Nigeria

Abstract Despite rising government health expenditure with significant challenges facing the health sector, Nigeria carries one of Africa’s highest malaria burdens which have been a primary cause of rising infant and maternal mortality. This study empirically investigates the disaggregated impact of government health expenditure on malaria, infant and maternal mortality rates in Nigeria between 2000 and 2024 using an unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach. Time series data on government health expenditure (HXP), malaria mortality rate (MLR), infant mortality rate (IMR) and maternal mortality rate (MMT) were sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator (WDI), Disease Registers (DR), Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems, Routine Health Information System (RHIS) and the Health Management Information System (HMIS). The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perrron (PP) unit root tests were conducted to test the stationarity of the series. The Johansen cointegration test established the long run relationship of the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) captured the speed of adjustment to equilibrium of short run shocks, in the long run. The findings revealed that with rising government healthcare spending infant, maternal and malaria mortalities continue to exacerbate due to inadequate and moribund healthcare infrastructure, poor welfare package for health workers, inadequate health funding, among others. This implies that government health spending has not significantly translated into favorable healthcare outcomes in Nigeria during the period of study.