Cybersecurity vulnerabilities of variable speed limit signs and their effects on accident risk and traffic safety

Abstract Variable Speed Limits (VSL) are primarily designed to enhance traffic safety on hazardous roadways by dynamically adjusting speed limits based on real-time traffic and weather conditions. Most previous studies have focused on using VSLs to improve safety, mitigate congestion, and reduce environmental impact, assuming a securely connected VSL network. But what would be the impact of cyberattacks on VSL systems on traffic safety and network efficiency. This paper investigates the impact of intentional disruptions on VSL signs within traffic networks. We present a threat model to identify vulnerabilities in the VSL communication network and potential access points for attackers. An analytical accident model was developed, and various VSL disruption scenarios were simulated using a case study of Highway 1 in British Columbia, Canada, in SUMO (Simulation of Urban MObility) to assess the potential for crashes and safety problems resulting from VSL disruptions. Surrogate Safety Measures (SSM) were employed as key measures of safety concerns. Our findings highlight notable risks, including up to 56 \% additional conflicts, posed by these intentional disruptions. A robustness assessment using Monte Carlo simulation runs of a scenario with heterogeneous driver behaviors demonstrated that the safety impact is consistent and not random seed-dependent. Across runs, intentional disruptions still yielded significant increases in conflicts, with an average rise of 24. 95%, confirming the stability of the results. Various mitigation strategies are discussed to enhance traffic safety and resilience against VSL manipulation.