CIRAN D3.3 Nexus of policy decisions and drivers of change

This report presents the methodological implementation of foresight-adapted tools to make sense of, and understand, the linkage between drivers of change and policy formulation affecting the future of Critical Raw Materials (CRM) value chains.To achieve this goal, several steps were taken with the design and implementation of future looking methods, including Horizon Scanning, Delphi Survey, Scenarios planning and development, What-if analyses with gaming elements and DPSIR-focused frameworks on topics relevant to the world of CRMs. The focus was on tying together policy decisions with elements from the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal spheres. Many of the methodological steps involved the interaction with stakeholders that were engaged with on-site and on-line exercises. The results from these exercises were brought together into the design of the four CIRAN Scenarios for the year 2035. They describe four potential views for the future under two main scopes: globalisation vs deglobalisation and technology development vs technology stagnation. The Scenario narratives incorporate several descriptions following the PESTEL framework and the drivers of change, and how these influence policy-formulation to address future challenges and needs, particularly through foresight exercises to facilitate the prevention of potentially damaging consequences. As such, the CIRAN 2035 scenarios can be an important tool to better frame policy decisions and their implementation, depending on the state of the world in the near-to-mid future.