Analyzing the perceived sensitivity of Murrah buffalo-based livestock production system toward changing climate using the Analytical Hierarchy Process

Climate change poses escalating threats to livestock production systems globally, with extreme weather events including intensified heat waves and cold spells increasingly compromising animal productivity, reproductive performance, and resource availability. The Murrah buffalo, a high-yielding dairy breed central to India’s national milk output, remains particularly vulnerable in Haryana’s Trans-Gangetic Plain, where climatic extremes are pronounced yet breed-specific sensitivity assessments are largely absent. This study employed the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multi-criteria decision-making framework, to systematically quantify farmers’ perceived climate change sensitivity across the Murrah buffalo-based livestock production system. A total of 320 farmers were surveyed across eight agro-ecologically representative blocks in Haryana. Eight primary indicators and 35 sub-indicators were identified and prioritized through pairwise comparisons. Results revealed that type of farming system was the most critical sensitivity indicator (priority weight = 0.23), with the specialized crop-based farming system sub-indicator carrying the highest global priority (0.10). Reproductive performance (0.18) and feed availability (0.16) emerged as the next most sensitive indicators, followed by impacts on milk yield, conception rates, vector-borne disease prevalence, water resource availability, and agro biodiversity. These findings highlight the deeply interconnected nature of climate vulnerabilities within Murrah buffalo husbandry and underscore the urgency of transitioning toward diversified, climate-resilient farming models. The AHP-derived priority framework offers a replicable, evidence-based tool for policymakers and extension services to target adaptation interventions in heat-stressed, smallholder dairy systems.