Agriculture remains central to livelihoods, employment, and food security in Somalia, yet its performance is constrained by fragility, weak infrastructure, limited investment, and environmental stress. This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of agricultural value added (AVA) using annual time-series data from 1980 to 2022. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach is applied to estimate short-run and long-run relationships, while FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR are used to confirm the robustness of long-run estimates. The results show a stable long-run relationship between AVA and key macroeconomic variables. Real GDP exhibits the strongest positive association, although this reflects a broad macroeconomic linkage rather than a purely causal effect. Trade openness and population growth are also positive and significant in the long run, while foreign direct investment has a modest effect and domestic investment is not statistically robust. In the short run, GDP, foreign direct investment, domestic investment, and population growth are significant, whereas trade openness is not. Overall, the findings indicate that agricultural performance in Somalia is closely linked to broader macroeconomic conditions and highlight the importance of market access, productivity-enhancing investment, and resilience-oriented agricultural policies.
Abdulle et al. (2026) studied this question.