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May 9, 2026BMJ Public HealthOpen Access

Impacts of the Universal Credit welfare reform on well-being: a natural experiment study using UK population survey data

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Authors

ABAndrew BaxterMTMartha TindallSWSophie Wickham

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Overview

Natural experiment reveals negative effects of Universal Credit on well-being, especially for vulnerable groups.

Key Points

  • This research aims to assess the impact of Universal Credit (UC) welfare reform on psychological well-being across various demographics in the UK.
  • Utilized data from the Annual Population Survey covering 245,658 working-age respondents from 2012 to 2019.
  • Analyzed psychological well-being outcomes using four self-reported measures: Life Satisfaction, Happiness, Life Worthwhile, and Anxiety.
  • Employed a natural experiment design comparing areas with and without UC rollout.
  • Universal Credit was associated with a decrease in Life Satisfaction by −0.66 (95% CI −1.01 to −0.30).
  • Happiness decreased by −0.41 (95% CI −0.77 to −0.05) and Life Worthwhile by −0.73 (95% CI −1.03 to −0.42).
  • Anxiety increased by +0.79 (95% CI 0.30 to 1.27), with vulnerable groups experiencing greater adverse effects.

Cite This Study

Baxter et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fecfe9b9154b0b82876e11https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjph-2025-003762
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