The Horn of Africa is one of the most significant and contested geopolitical regions in the world, next to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. The region is vital for the global supply chain, accounting for approximately 12% of global trade; furthermore, oil and gas, along with approximately 30% of global container traffic, pass through this crucial sea route. Also, digital infrastructure and seabed cables carrying data between Europe, Africa, and Asia are heavily concentrated in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean alongside the coast of the Horn. For these reasons, the Horn of Africa was a battleground of the U.S. and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Currently, there is a renewal of the Cold War rivalry predominantly due to power competition between the U.S. and China, as both countries have a military presence in Djibouti. On the other hand, there are powers from the Middle East interested in having a foothold in the region. For example, Turkey established its first military base outside Turkey in Mogadishu, Somalia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) built a base in Berbera, Somaliland. This study employs realism theory as a framework of analysis to examine the multi-layered competition that exacerbates security dilemmas across the region, which has long been synonymous with conflict and crisis in the international discourse. The study underscores the need for revised national policies in dealing with foreign powers and stronger regional institutions to avoid a potential proxy war.
Nasir M. Ali (Thu,) studied this question.