ABSTRACT Forest carbon stocks constitute a central component of global climate mitigation, although temporal–spatial heterogeneity in forest‐carbon relationships remains insufficiently understood. This study quantifies global forest‐carbon dynamics across 235 countries over 1992–2020 using comprehensive panel econometric methods. Global forest carbon stocks declined 0.95% (297 to 294 Gt C) despite 3.83% forest area losses, with forest‐carbon elasticity approximating unity. Regional elasticities range from 0.381 (Americas) to 2.984 (Euro Area). Threshold analysis identifies a critical discontinuity at 7.66% forest share, below which elasticity falls to 0.729, while above‐threshold countries achieve 1.165, a 60% increase. Temporal analysis reveals a 2010 structural break coinciding with REDD+ implementation. Current trajectories diverge from Paris Agreement requirements, necessitating 5–10× reforestation scaling and 80%–90% deforestation reduction. Policy implications emphasize differentiated strategies targeting high‐elasticity regions, protecting tropical forests, implementing threshold‐based interventions, and integrating forest mitigation with sustainable development objectives.
Gawusu et al. (Thu,) studied this question.