Interplay Roles of Telework and Climate Hazard Risks in Recent Migration Trends in the United States

ABSTRACT Telework has become a lasting feature of the U.S. labor market, expanding workers' freedom to live farther from their workplaces. At the same time, climate hazards such as hurricanes, droughts, and floods are growing in severity and frequency, shaping where people feel safe and comfortable living. While both trends are reshaping population movements, it remains unclear how they interact. This paper investigates how climate risk moderates the relationship between telework and interstate migration in the United States. Using a panel of census tracts from 2013 to 2023 that combines American Community Survey data on telework and migration with hazard risk scores from FEMA's National Risk Index, we estimate interaction models between telework prevalence and hazard exposure. We find that telework is generally associated with increased in‐migration into areas facing higher levels of episodic or amenity‐correlated climate risk. Results using the composite hazard risk score show a positive and statistically significant interaction between telework and climate risks, including riverine flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, cold waves, and droughts. In contrast, persistent climatic conditions such as extreme heat exhibit a negative interaction with telework, while winter weather shows no consistent effect. These patterns are strongest for interstate moves and in larger population tracts, indicating that telework most strongly reshapes long‐distance destination choice where infrastructure and amenities allow households to manage environmental risk rather than avoiding risk altogether. Overall, telework alters how climate risk enters migration decisions, with implications for population redistribution, adaptation planning, and the future geography of work.