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May 13, 2026Risks0 citationsOpen Access

Climate Policy Uncertainty and Housing Prices: Analyzing Bidirectional Transmission Across U.S. Metropolitan Areas

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SBSourav BatabyalAGAlper Gormus

Key Points

  • This research investigates the connection between climate policy uncertainty and housing prices in U.S. metropolitan areas.
  • Analyzed the U.S. CPU index and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices from January 1991 to May 2024.
  • Used a Fourier-augmented Toda–Yamamoto causality framework to assess causal relationships.
  • Explored geographic variations in the relationship across different types of markets.
  • Documented significant transmission from climate policy uncertainty to housing prices.
  • Uncovered bidirectional relationships in cities like Los Angeles, New York, San Diego, and San Francisco.
  • Found that coastal markets are sensitive to climate risks, while inland markets show different dynamics.

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and residential housing prices across U.S. metropolitan areas using the U.S. CPU index developed by Gavriilidis in 2021 and monthly S inland growth markets display housing prices → CPU feedback, likely operating through political economy channels; Midwest extreme-weather markets show persistent transmission despite their non-coastal locations; recession-sensitive markets become CPU-responsive following the Great Recession; and insulated markets show no significant transmission. The findings indicate that CPU operates as a priced systematic risk factor requiring integration into housing finance oversight, macroprudential frameworks, and investment strategies. These results have important implications for financial stability monitoring, mortgage credit risk assessment, and climate policy design as markets navigate transition risks in a low-carbon economy.

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Cite This Study

Batabyal et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a03cbe01c527af8f1ecfa1ehttps://doi.org/10.3390/risks14050114
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