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May 13, 2026The American Surgeon0 citations

Risk Factors for the Progression of Pyogenic Liver Abscess to Sepsis and Development of a Predictive Model

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XCXianzhi ChengJWJingxin WangHZHong Zhang

Key Points

  • This research aims to explore risk factors for the progression of pyogenic liver abscess to sepsis and their predictive value.
  • Conducted a retrospective analysis on PLA patients from one institution
  • Categorized patients into sepsis and non-sepsis groups
  • Performed multivariate logistic regression to identify risk factors
  • Used ROC curve analysis to evaluate the predictive performance of factors.
  • Identified uric acid, total bilirubin, and platelet count as independent risk factors for sepsis progression
  • Uric acid sensitivity: 0.589, specificity: 0.806; total bilirubin sensitivity: 0.753, specificity: 0.913; platelet count sensitivity: 0.726, specificity: 0.704
  • Threshold values determined: UA ≥306.5 μmol/L, TBIL ≥26.75 μmol/L, PLT ≤155 × 10 9 /L.

Abstract

Aims This study aimed to examine risk factors associated with the progression of pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) to sepsis and to evaluate their predictive value. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients diagnosed with PLA at a single institution between January 2019 and December 2024. Demographic data and laboratory parameters were collected. Based on the occurrence of sepsis, patients were categorized into a sepsis group (n = 73) and a non-sepsis group (n = 103). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine independent risk factors for progression to sepsis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was conducted to assess the predictive performance of the identified factors. Results Multivariate logistic regression identified uric acid (UA), total bilirubin (TBIL), and platelet count (PLT) as independent risk factors for the progression of PLA to sepsis. ROC analysis yielded the following results: (1) Sensitivity: UA 0.589, TBIL 0.753, PLT 0.726; (2) Specificity: UA 0.806, TBIL 0.913, PLT 0.704; (3) Threshold: UA 306.5 μmol/L, TBIL 26.75 μmol/L, PLT 155 × 10 9 /L. Conclusion Multivariate analysis identified elevated UA (per 1 μmol/L increase: OR 1.006, 95% CI 1.000-1.012) and TBIL (per 1 μmol/L increase: OR 1.301, 95% CI 1.183-1.478), and decreased PLT (per 1 ×10 9 /L decrease: OR 0.982, 95% CI 0.972-0.989) as independent risk factors for sepsis progression. Threshold values of UA ≥306.5 μmol/L, TBIL ≥26.75 μmol/L, and PLT ≤155 × 10 9 /L may serve as clinical indicators for identifying patients at high risk of progression to sepsis.

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Cite This Study

Cheng et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a03cc3d1c527af8f1ed024fhttps://doi.org/10.1177/00031348261451738
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