Assessing vulnerability and risk of coastal settlements in The Gambia to windstorms: integrating socioeconomic and environmental dimensions

The Gambia’s coastal landscape has been negatively impacted by windstorms and climate related hazards over the past 30 years, resulting in loss of lives, livelihoods and infrastructure. This study assesses wind speed variability from 1990 to 2020 using Mann Kendall’s trend test and Sen’s slope estimator indicating a marginally increasing trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.144 and statistical significance at the 10% level ( p = 0.0614). In addition, a survey of 380 households across 10 coastal settlements was conducted to assess exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to windstorm hazards using a composite index approach based on 30 indicators (9 exposure, 10 sensitivity and 11 adaptive capacity indicators), which were normalized and equally weighted. The findings indicate that large household sizes and low income levels are key factors limiting the construction of durable, climate resilient housing. Additionally, 47% of surveyed houses were made of mud as the main construction material for the walls, while pit latrines represent 77% of toilets for household use. Furthermore, 98% of households rely on coastal vegetation such as mangroves for fuel and construction, thereby reducing the ecosystem services including natural windbreaks provided by plants and increasing their exposure to windstorm impact. Consequently, the vulnerability analysis conducted across the 10 coastal settlements revealed that most settlements recorded high vulnerability index scores above 0.50, with Gunjur (0.67) and Essau (0.65) among the most vulnerable, while Barra and Bakau Old Cape exhibited moderate vulnerability levels with index scores of 0.45 and 0.42, respectively. The risk assessment further indicated a high risk index score for Gunjur (0.51) and moderate risk index scores of 0.45, 0.42, 0.40 and 0.43 for Essau, Kotu, Brufut and Sanyang, respectively. Identifying the most vulnerable and at-risk settlements to windstorms is vital for prioritising protection efforts of the coastal inhabitants. Therefore, these findings underscore the importance of addressing locally identified drivers of vulnerability and risk and settlement specific adaptation strategies. These findings suggest that improvements in socioeconomic conditions, infrastructure, and living standards could significantly enhance the capacity of coastal communities to reduce the impacts of windstorms and other climate related hazards.