Winning Determinants in Middle School Taekwondo Sparring under the Electronic Protector and Scoring System (PSS): An Analysis of the 54th National Junior Sports Festival

The purpose of this study was to examine the determinants of winning and losing in middle school Taekwondo sparring under the Electronic Protector and Scoring System (PSS) by integrating text mining with empirical match analysis. A sequential mixed-methods design was adopted. Text mining techniques were applied to 50 domestic studies published since 2015 to identify key training factors and their structural relationships. Match videos from semifinal and final rounds of a national competition (n=48) were analyzed to explore differences in technical performance between winners and losers. The text mining results revealed four major training dimensions: physical, technical–tactical, psychological, and environmental factors. In the empirical analysis, winners demonstrated significantly higher frequencies of front-leg counterattacks compared to losers (p=.042), while losers showed significantly greater use of turning techniques (p=.015). Logistic regression analysis indicated that front-leg counterattacks positively predicted winning probability (OR=1.186), whereas turning techniques negatively predicted winning outcomes (OR=0.621). The model showed acceptable explanatory power (McFadden pseudo R² = .178). Overall, the findings suggest that in the PSS environment, efficient and situation-specific counterattacks contribute more substantially to winning than frequent attempts of high-difficulty turning techniques. These results provide practical implications for evidence-based training strategies in middle school Taekwondo.