Against the backdrop of global energy pattern restructuring, the advancement of dual-carbon goals and large-scale development of unconventional oil and gas, complex oil and gas fields are confronted with practical challenges including harsh geological conditions and diversified development objectives. Traditional development planning methods for oil and gas fields suffer from single evaluation dimensions, strong subjectivity in decision making and insufficient dynamic adaptability, which make them unable to meet the full-process development requirements. To realize scientific, quantitative and systematic development planning of complex oil and gas fields, a development planning evaluation method suitable for complex oil and gas fields is established by integrating multidisciplinary theories. First, a multilevel evaluation model for oil and gas field development planning is constructed according to the characteristics and difficulties of development planning evaluation for complex oil and gas fields. The model consists of five core modules: external analysis, internal analysis, corporate development strategy selection, business planning and risk assessment. Secondly, a development planning evaluation method is established through a closed-loop process including special quantitative IFE/EFE analysis, IE matrix strategic positioning, SWOT alternative strategy pool and QSPM priority ranking. Then, the strategic priority ranking is dynamically adjusted by considering the impact of stepped oil prices. Finally, combined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a comprehensive risk index evaluation model is established to realize quantitative assessment and traceability of risk levels. A case application in Block M demonstrates that its strategic positioning belongs to the growth type. Under low–medium–high tiered oil prices, the strategic combinations with the highest strategic priority are W+O strategy, S+O strategy and S+O, respectively. The development risk level is moderate risk. This study fills the gap in the whole-process evaluation system of complex oil and gas fields, and realizes the transformation of development planning from qualitative analysis to quantitative decision making. It provides theoretical methods and practical references for ensuring high-quality development of complex oil and gas fields and energy security.
You et al. (Thu,) studied this question.