Natural resource curse versus Dutch disease: the explanatory primacy of New Developmentalism over the paradox of plenty

This article reevaluates the two main explanatory approaches to the paradox of plenty: natural resource curse and Dutch disease. It is argued that the neo-institutionalism literature, while relevant for identifying political pathologies and rent capture incentives, operates predominantly at the level of effects rather than causes. The neoclassical model of Dutch disease, in turn, is limited to temporary price shocks. The article contends that Dutch disease, reformulated by New Developmentalism as an endogenous and chronic market coordination failure − anchored in Ricardian rents and multiple exchange rate equilibria − constitutes the structuring mechanism. The article proposes and formalizes a typology of models within the natural resource curse and Dutch disease theories.