Multi-criteria decision optimization for sustainable business strategy under uncertainty: a firm-level study

This study explores firms’ decision-making process in prioritizing sustainability investments under uncertainty. In response to global shocks such as economic crises, pandemics, and geopolitical tensions, firms need to revise their investment decisions to improve their resilience and competitiveness while complying with increasingly restrictive environmental regulations. In that respect, choosing the optimal investment portfolio requires a multifaceted analysis taking environmental, economic, technical, and risk-related concerns into account. The study proposes a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) framework to formulate the decision-making problem and illustrates how the model can be implemented for a case scenario. Using a set of sixteen criteria, four alternatives are assessed using fuzzy Einstein technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy combined compromise solution (CoCoSo) methods. The results of the case scenario indicate that proactive strategies should be prioritized and emphasize the strategic risks of postponing sustainability commitments. The study builds a theoretical framework to discuss the role of sustainability investments in firms’ resilience and competitiveness. At the same time, it provides a practical decision-support tool to be used by firms, policy makers, and researchers. • Economic, regulatory, and geopolitical uncertainties are taken into consideration • FUCOM and Fuzzy Einstein TOPSIS is combined for robust decision-making • Strategic investment choices enhance firm agility in response to uncertainty • Proactive strategies against uncertainty outperform delay decisions • Micro-level decision support for firms is advised to policymakers