Spatiotemporal Evolution and Transition Patterns of Cultivated Land Ecological Security in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River, China

ABSTRACT Cultivated land ecological security (CLES) is fundamental to ensuring food security and supporting sustainable socioeconomic development. However, most existing assessments adopt static analytical approaches and treat counties as independent spatial units. This assumption overlooks the inherently interactive and path‐dependent nature of ecological processes across neighboring regions. To address this limitation, this study develops an integrated DPSIR–ESTDA framework that links structured evaluation of internal system conditions with the diagnosis of external spatial interactions. Using county‐level data from the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River for 2005–2020, a CLES index is constructed through the entropy‐weighted TOPSIS method. The spatiotemporal interaction patterns are then examined through LISA time‐paths and spatiotemporal transition analysis. Results show that CLES exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity and stage‐based evolution characteristics, with the spatial gradient shifting from a high east–low west pattern during 2005–2015 to a high west–low east configuration after 2015. Although the system displays strong spatiotemporal dynamism, these fluctuations rarely translate into substantive structural transitions, leaving most counties trapped in their existing ecological levels. Although spatial interactions are widespread across the region, they remain at an early stage of development. Most counties follow trajectories of synergistic decline or positive fault type movements, indicating the absence of a strong, constructive synergistic mechanism. Regional transitions further differentiate into three spatial structural patterns: path lock‐in–endogenous transition, same‐direction transition–transmission resistance, and opposite‐direction transition. Overall, these findings clarify the spatiotemporal dynamics of CLES and provide evidence for spatially differentiated governance strategies.