Transformation of local self-governance and the impact of oil prices on regional development in Kazakhstan

Introduction This article investigates the transformation of local self-governance in Kazakhstan within the context of decentralization reforms shaped by resource-dependent fiscal centralization. Although legislative and institutional reforms have formally expanded the role of local governance, major constraints remain. These include fiscal dependence on the center, limited citizen participation, weak administrative capacity, and an incomplete distribution of competencies across levels of government. The study also examines how oil-linked redistribution influences regional development and restricts effective local autonomy. Methods The study uses an explanatory mixed-methods design. The qualitative component draws on public policy and legal documents, regional case materials, and 28 semi-structured interviews conducted in 2023–2024 with local officials, maslikhat representatives, public council members, NGO actors, civic activists, and experts in Almaty city, Karaganda Region, and Almaty Region. The quantitative component relies on official regional statistics and a secondary analysis of anonymized survey microdata collected in 2023 by UNDP and the Public Opinion Institute ( N = 1,530). The material was examined through thematic coding, descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, and interregional comparison. Results The findings show that decentralization in Kazakhstan remains institutionally constrained. Local authorities continue to depend heavily on central transfers, while participatory mechanisms often function in a formal rather than substantive manner. The analysis also reveals persistent staffing shortages, blurred competencies, and informal decision-making practices. Regional comparison demonstrates uneven governance capacity and responsiveness, with Almaty city performing more strongly than the more transfer-dependent regional cases. The results further indicate that fluctuations in global oil prices shape the transfer-based architecture of regional development and reinforce vertical dependence. Discussion These findings suggest that the limits of local self-governance in Kazakhstan should be understood not as isolated administrative weaknesses, but as structural effects of resource-conditioned fiscal centralization. Oil revenues influence intergovernmental redistribution, weaken incentives for local fiscal autonomy, and sustain administrative formalism. More effective reform therefore requires transparent fiscal decentralization, clearer competency boundaries, stronger local administrative capacity, and more meaningful forms of civic engagement. In this way, the study contributes to the broader discussion of decentralization in transitional and hybrid political systems.