Plant-level decarbonization pathways and mitigation costs of global oil refineries

Abstract Oil refining is a major industrial CO 2 emitter and requires rapid decarbonization to align with climate goals. While decarbonization has been widely discussed at national and global levels, successful implementation relies on mitigation options that are technically feasible and economically competitive at individual refineries. Here we develop a plant-level decarbonization pathway model, coupling refinery-specific operating characteristics with dynamic costs of low-carbon technologies. The global refining sector, especially deep conversion refineries, could be substantially decarbonized through carbon capture and storage and clean hydrogen. Regional differences in refinery age and configuration lead to heterogeneous decarbonization pathways. In China, over 60% of mitigation costs in deep-conversion refineries are associated with carbon capture and storage at furnaces and boilers, whereas in the USA, approximately 40% arise from replacing steam methane reformers with biomass gasification for hydrogen production. Combining shorter retrofitting cycles with bio-crude oil adoption would further increase cumulative mitigation and enable negative CO 2 emissions. Our findings identify feasible, cost-effective plant-level mitigation strategies and provide actionable evidence for accelerating climate mitigation.