A two-stage sequential intention model for autonomous vehicle adoption: Formation and updating of purchase and sharing intentions

Understanding consumer intentions is critical for predicting the market adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs). However, existing models often fail to capture the sequential nature of intention formation and updating. This study aims to address this gap by developing and validating a two-stage sequential intention model, adapted from the extended unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) model. The first stage models the formation of initial purchase and sharing intentions based on value-centric constructs, and the second stage models the updating of purchase intention by conceptualizing the final decision as a trade-off between the initial willingness, the appeal of sharing, and the perceived sharing risk. The empirical results, based on a survey of 447 Chinese car owners, provide strong support for the proposed two-stage model. We find that the formation of initial intentions is driven by performance expectancy and price sensitivity, whereas the updating phase reveals that perceived sharing risk exerts a significant negative influence on the final purchase intention. By distinguishing between intention formation and updating, the model offers a nuanced and realistic understanding of AV adoption. This study provides a powerful framework for analyzing the complex value proposition process and offering refined insights for policy and industry strategy.