Caught Between Whales: Navigating Strategic Pressures in South Korea's Democratic Party Foreign Policy in the US-China era

Abstract In the light of this year’s elections in South Korea, where on June 4th the Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung took the upper hand replacing the impeached right-wing conservative leader Yoon Suk-yeol, there is a question of what the foreign policy strategy will look like under the new administration? As the presidency of Lee Jae-myung has lasted hardly half a year, for now it is too early to search for definite answers. But what can be done is to go back to the predecessor of the newly elected leader, namely Moon Jae-in, who served before Yoon Suk-yeol and came from the same Democratic Party, i.e., one of the two major political parties in South Korea. By analyzing the policies under the former democratic president, we can look at the path that the representatives of this party had already followed, thus acquiring the background to draw expectations for the current administration. Will they follow the same path or change the strategy completely? While the timeline analyzed is 2017-2018, i.e., the early period of presidency of Moon Jae-in, it also coincides with the era of the ongoing US-China competition, which has been shaping the political landscape not only in Asia, but in the whole world for a considerable time. Given the historical security dependence on the US and economic cooperation with China, it is vital for the ROK to follow a thoughtful foreign policy to address relations with both sides and secure a resilient position in such an unstable international environment. Given these strategic challenges, a central question arises: how did the Democratic Party navigate the US–China rivalry during Moon Jae-in’s presidency, and what does this reveal about the likely direction of Lee Jae-myung’s foreign policy? Taking the 2017 New Southern Approach (NSP) as reflecting the foreign policy orientation of Korea at that time, this paper argues that the position of Korea was “strategically ambiguous”, i.e. avoiding definitive alignment with either Washington or Beijing. In turn, within the context of dependency, this approach sought to enhance ROK’s autonomy as a middle-power and create greater room for maneuver in its policy- making.