When politics turn volatile: Equity market responses to the Trump–Zelensky confrontation

This study analyzes how the 28 February 2025 Trump–Zelensky meeting affected European and U.S. stock markets. Event-day abnormal returns were modest and mostly negative across continental Europe, particularly in countries near Ukraine or reliant on Russian energy, while distant market such as the UK showed slight gains. Cumulative abnormal returns reflected delayed market adjustments to unexpected meeting developments, later reversing after Ukraine’s allies coordinated at the 2 March London summit. Regression analysis confirms geopolitical risk and negative media coverage reduce returns, with heightened effects during uncertainty. Media sentiment amplifies market reactions to geopolitical events.