Forecasting Land Use Change Trends and Their Impact on Flood Vulnerability: A Case Study of the Aq‐Qala Basin, Iran

ABSTRACT Land use and land cover changes in the Aq‐Qala region of Golestan Province—particularly the expansion of agricultural land and the reduction of fallow lands, shrublands, dense vegetation, and water bodies—have substantially increased flood risk, as evidenced by the flood that occurred between March 19 and April 10, 2019. Between 2012 and 2022, these changes intensified surface runoff and reduced soil water retention, emphasizing the need for accurate monitoring and effective land management. This study aims to identify land use changes across seven classes (Agricultural Land, Barren Land, Fallow Land, Shrubland, Built‐up Area, Dense Vegetation Cover, and Water Bodies), analyze their relationship with flooding, and predict future trends up to 2030. A descriptive–analytical approach was applied using Sentinel satellite imagery from 2012 to 2022. Image preprocessing included geometric and radiometric corrections, followed by land use classification using machine learning algorithms implemented in ArcGIS Pro 3.2 and Python 3.10. Future land use patterns were projected using a linear regression model (Y = aX + b). Results indicate a significant expansion of agricultural land by approximately 23,000 hectares from 2012 to 2022, mainly through the conversion of barren lands, fallow lands, and water bodies, while water bodies declined sharply by 6500 hectares, from 8300 hectares in 2012 to 1800 hectares in 2022. These transformations increased surface runoff and contributed directly to the severity of the 2019 flood. Model projections suggest that agricultural land will exceed 50% of the total area by 2030, intensifying flood vulnerability and risk. These outcomes highlight the necessity of implementing integrated land use management policies. Priority should be given to wetland restoration, conservation of vegetation cover, controlled agricultural expansion, and strict regulation of development in floodplain areas to mitigate flood hazards and support sustainable regional development.