From measurement to mitigation: linking life cycle assessment research and industrial emission trends

Abstract Assessment and measurement of environmental impacts are generally regarded as a crucial prerequisite for effective environmental management. Yet empirical evidence linking scientific measurement efforts to real-world environmental improvements remains limited. Focusing on life cycle assessment as a prominent method of environmental impact assessment, this study examines the link between scientific publications and the evolution of environmentally harmful emissions on the global scale. The study combines bibliometric data with global emission inventories across industrial sectors. Using linear mixed-effect models, the effect of publication activity is modeled on absolute and relative scales. Multiple transformations and alternative formulations of the tested variables are applied, and a range of potential confounding variables is considered. Across the models, the association between publication activity and emission changes is generally weak. Statistically significant and sector-specific effects were detected for greenhouse gas emission on the absolute and relative scales. However, these effects largely disappear when emissions are normalized by sectoral economic output. No consistent pattern was detected for the other air pollutants. The results suggest that publication activity may contribute to incremental improvements at the margins of industry. Nevertheless, no evidence of a system-wide environmental transformation was detected. The findings underline the notion that knowledge about environmental impacts is an insufficient driver of transformation on its own. Impact measurement activity needs to be accompanied by dissemination efforts and policy measures to achieve an effective reduction of environmental impacts.