Under the global sustainable development agenda, urban ecological resilience serves as a key indicator of park city. This study established a framework of “Retrospective Evaluation–Prospective Simulation–Zoning Control”. The study chose Chengdu and analyzed land-use changes occurring at three-year intervals from 1999 to 2023. A defense–adaptability–recovery framework was applied to assess urban ecological resilience (UER). The study further simulated land use and urban ecological resilience patterns for 2035 under three scenarios, including natural development, ecological conservation, and park city development scenarios. Finally, it coupled UER with land development intensity to delineate ecological zones and propose differentiated strategies. The results showed that (1) historical UER declined then rose, with low UER concentrated in built-up areas and relatively low UER accounting for the largest share. (2) The park city development scenario yielded the highest UER, but showed limited improvement in existing low-resilience built-up areas. (3) Zoning patterns across scenarios were highly similar, dominated by Potential Development Zones. This study identifies the optimal scenario for enhancing UER and offers zoning strategies that can inform park city development in other cities.
Lu et al. (2026) studied this question.