Explainable Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Tunnel Water Inrush Quantity Under Small-Sample, High-Heterogeneity Conditions: GAN Augmentation and Swarm-Optimized CatBoost

This study aims to explore a leakage-aware and explainable machine learning framework for predicting tunnel water inrush quantity (WIQ) under small-sample and high-heterogeneity geological conditions. A project-level dataset was compiled at a fixed spatial granularity of 30 m per excavation segment by integrating forward prospecting outputs, construction-face observations, and geological reports, and six hydrogeological–structural indicators were used to predict the water inflow rate in cubic meters per hour. To overcome data scarcity and improve generalization, a tabular generative adversarial network (GAN) was introduced to augment the training distribution while preserving marginal statistics and inter-variable dependence, and a swarm-intelligence optimizer was employed to tune a Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) regressor for stable performance. In addition, six mainstream tree-based learners were benchmarked under a unified protocol, and model transparency was ensured through a multi-level interpretability suite combining SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) attribution, partial dependence with individual conditional expectation (ICE) diagnostics, and interaction surfaces. Results show that, under the present fixed split, training-set augmentation was associated with improved performance for the evaluated baseline learners, and the proposed hybrid model achieved encouraging hold-out accuracy. However, because the dataset contains only 55 real samples and the test set contains only 11 real samples, the reported performance should be interpreted as an initial project-specific indication rather than robust evidence of generalizable reliability. Interpretability analyses further identify lithologic and reflector-related factors as dominant drivers, and reveal nonlinear response patterns and interaction-sensitive high-risk regions. Overall, the proposed framework shows potential to improve predictive performance and engineering interpretability for the studied project, and may provide a useful reference for drainage and reinforcement planning. Further confirmation through repeated data splitting, additional samples, and external validation is still needed before broader application.