Extending integrated assessment model scenarios until 2150 using emulation approaches

Abstract Whereas there is growing interest in exploring very long-term climate with overshoot beyond 2100, most integrated assessment models (IAMs) generate emissions scenarios only through 2100. Here we propose approaches for extending scenarios until 2150 using an emulator of IAMs. Our approaches offer a potential interim solution for developing very long-term scenarios, such as the scenario model intercomparison project, circumventing the challenges of fully simulating IAMs beyond 2100.