The Green Total Factor Productivity Effect of Computing Infrastructure: Evidence from China’s Supercomputing Centers

As a strategic infrastructure supporting high-quality economic and social development, computing infrastructure plays a pivotal role in enabling green transitions. Using panel data from Chinese prefecture-level cities spanning 2007 to 2023 and leveraging the staggered commissioning of 12 National Supercomputing Centers as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper employs a time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) approach to estimate the effect of computing infrastructure on urban green total factor productivity (GTFP). The results indicate that the operation of supercomputing centers has a statistically significant positive effect on urban GTFP, with a magnitude equivalent to approximately 0.83 times the sample standard deviation of GTFP, a finding that remains robust to alternative dependent variable specifications, the exclusion of other policy shocks, and placebo tests. Mechanism analysis reveals that computing infrastructure facilitates green development through three channels: fostering green technological innovation, optimizing energy efficiency, and strengthening environmental regulation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effect is more pronounced in coastal cities, small-to-medium-sized cities, and regions with weaker digital infrastructure. Spatial analysis further uncovers a distance-decay pattern, with a siphoning effect within a 50 km radius and a spillover effect between 50 km and 200 km from the supercomputing center. This study provides empirical evidence on the environmental consequences of the computing economy and offers policy implications for optimizing computing infrastructure deployment to facilitate green transitions.