How the Central Emergency Response Fund Crowds in Bilateral Humanitarian Aid

Abstract The United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) is central to peacebuilding and disaster relief, yet we know little about its capacity to fulfil one of its core functions, mobilizing donor countries to give bilateral aid in the event of rapid-onset and underfunded humanitarian emergencies. This article argues that the aid given bilaterally by individual donor countries follows the choices made by the CERF to provide humanitarian aid, as bilateral donors seek enhanced aid coordination and delivery. The argument yields two hypotheses, which are examined by using a dataset for aid flows from the CERF, 29 Development Assistance Committee donors, and 147 aid recipients between 2006 and 2021. The main findings are twofold. First, they suggest that bilateral humanitarian aid follows CERF aid. Second, the crowding-in effect of CERF aid does not appear to depend on donor country size. These results are robust even when addressing endogeneity, controlling for several other multilateral aid flows, and including various fixed effects. The article concludes by discussing broader implications for the literature about aid catalyzation, aid coordination through international organizations, and the determinants of humanitarian aid flows more broadly.