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This study systematically examines the impact mechanisms and heterogeneity of extreme climate on agricultural development using provincial panel data from China for the period 2011-2022. By constructing a panel double fixed-effects model, QRPD quantile regression model, and employing the instrumental variable method, the study finds that extreme climate has a significant suppressive effect on agricultural development. The quantile regression results indicate that as the agricultural development quantile increases, the suppressive effect of extreme climate gradually diminishes, suggesting that improvements in agricultural modernization help enhance climate resilience. Further research reveals that agricultural digital transformation and government environmental governance, as key moderating mechanisms, can effectively mitigate the negative impacts of extreme climate. This study provides new empirical evidence for understanding the complex relationship between climate risks and agricultural development and offers a scientific basis for the formulation of differentiated climate adaptation policies.
Wang et al. (Tue,) studied this question.