Tailings storage facilities (TSFs) present persistent environmental and social risks that extend beyond catastrophic structural collapse. In many mining regions, chronic containment failures such as dust dispersion, seepage and erosion remain under-recognised despite their long-term impacts on ecosystems, water resources and nearby communities. This paper presents a spatially integrated, indicator-based, risk screening framework for assessing chronic containment risks at a regional scale, demonstrated through a proof-of-concept application in South Africa’s Northern Cape Province. The framework integrates five thematic areas, TSF characteristics, biodiversity, land use, hydrology and climate, each operationalised through weighted spatial indicators structured according to a hazard–exposure–vulnerability (HEV) logic. A multi-level approach enables both theme-specific insights and composite risk mapping to support screening and prioritisation. Results reveal distinct spatial patterns of risk, with elevated values concentrated at legacy facilities located near sensitive ecosystems or populated areas. A scenario-based sensitivity analysis indicates that composite scores remain stable under plausible re-weighting schemes, supporting the robustness of the framework. Although outcomes reflect uncertainties associated with national datasets and incomplete TSF inventories, the method provides a transparent, reproducible and decision-relevant foundation for regional TSF risk screening and mine waste management. The approach offers a scalable pathway for strengthening preventative governance of chronic containment risks in South Africa and other data-scarce mining jurisdictions.
Koovarjee et al. (2026) studied this question.