China′s grain demand exhibits significant spatiotemporal and structural heterogeneity, driven by regional disparities in dietary patterns, population size, and industrial structure. Leveraging comprehensive statistical data and accounting for the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of livestock production systems, this study provides annual estimates of provincial-scale grain demand in China from 2002 to 2020. The estimates cover six key components: urban and rural staple food consumption, feed grain, seed grain, industrial use, post-harvest losses, and grain storage demand. Comparison with previous studies indicates relatively minor deviations in estimates of staple food demand, with relative errors ranging from -23.68% to 9.8%. In contrast, estimates for other grain demand categories vary considerably across studies, largely due to differences in parameter selection and inconsistencies in statistical definitions. Validation against provincial-level studies shows that, except for industrial grain use, discrepancies in demand estimates for other categories generally remain within 30%. This dataset can provide valuable data support for analyzing the spatiotemporal dynamics of regional grain demand in China, assessing grain supply-demand balance and dietary balance, evaluating environmental pressures, and projecting potential food security risks under future climate change at both national and global scales.
Chen et al. (Fri,) studied this question.