This study investigates whether countries converge toward common long-run paths in renewable energy consumption and examines the implications for global fuel transition dynamics. Using a balanced panel of 108 countries over the period 1990–2022, we implement an integrated econometric framework that combines stochastic convergence tests, β- and σ-convergence analysis, the Phillips–Sul club convergence methodology, ordered logit modelling, and heterogeneous panel causality tests. The results reject global stochastic convergence, indicating that countries do not share a common transition trajectory. However, evidence of β- and σ-convergence suggests the presence of partial and bounded catch-up dynamics. The Phillips–Sul approach identifies four distinct convergence regimes, implying multiple steady-state equilibria in global energy systems. Structural analysis shows that income and governance quality increase the probability of belonging to higher-renewable-energy regimes, while carbon intensity constrains upward transitions. Regime-specific causality results further reveal that the drivers of renewable energy dynamics differ across structural contexts. Overall, the findings demonstrate that global energy transitions are characterized by persistent heterogeneity and regime-dependent adjustment processes rather than uniform convergence. This study contributes by integrating convergence analysis with structural modelling and regime-based interpretation, offering a more comprehensive framework for understanding differentiated decarbonization pathways. The results carry important policy implications, highlighting that effective energy transition strategies must be tailored to regime-specific conditions rather than relying on uniform policy approaches.
Katrakylidis et al. (Sat,) studied this question.