Does the reform of equalization of basic public services affect residents' sense of safety?—A case from China

Background: The equalization of basic public services has emerged as a paramount objective in global social policy reform, particularly within developing nations. By enhancing the quality and accessibility of critical sectors-including healthcare, elderly care, and unemployment insurance-this agenda serves as a cornerstone for safeguarding social stability and fostering inclusive development. While the international community increasingly acknowledges the nexus between equitable service provision and residents' perceived safety, the existing literature remains deficient in two key areas: first, a systematic investigation of the causal mechanisms linking these variables; and second, robust empirical evidence from emerging economies like China. Addressing these gaps is crucial for deriving generalizable insights to inform global policy practices. Objective: This study examines the influence of basic public service equalization reforms on residents' sense of safety in developing countries. It also seeks to clarify the underlying mechanisms of this impact. Methods and samples: Drawing on longitudinal data from the Chinese Social Survey (CSS) covering the period from 2006 to 2021, this study leverages China's social security reforms aimed at equalizing urban-rural basic public services as a quasi-natural experiment. Employing a difference-in-differences (DID) estimation strategy, we empirically investigate the causal mechanisms through which these policy interventions influence residents' sense of safety. Results: The findings are as follows: (1) Basic public service equalization policies positively enhance residents' sense of safety. (2) Basic public service equalization exerts a positive impact on residents' sense of safety through three mediating variables: social equity, social support, and social trust. (3) The implementation of basic public service policies in provincial-level units exhibits spatial spillover effects. It is stronger for rural residents than urban residents, for residents in high-unemployment areas than those in low-unemployment areas, and for residents in regions with low per capita GDP than those in regions with high per capita GDP. (4) The short-term effect of basic public service equalization on residents' sense of safety is more prominent than its long-term effect. Conclusion: This study enriches the studies on the relationship between social security policy and residents' sense of safety. It provides empirical evidence for optimizing social security policies and offers insights for governments to enhance citizens' sense of residential safety. Additionally, it enriches the theoretical framework of cross-national policy evaluation and subjective sense of safety research. Beyond China-specific insights, the findings provide empirical evidence for developing countries worldwide to optimize their basic public service guarantee systems, particularly in balancing regional and group differences. Furthermore, the identified mechanisms have actionable implications for advancing the global agenda of fostering social cohesion and promoting inclusive social governance through public service reforms.