Expert-based quantitative modeling for the probabilistic assessment of human factors risks related to physical literacy

Background The introduction of the concept of physical literacy (PL) has led to progress in the SDG3 goal area of human physical activity (PA). Safety culture theory recognizes PL indicators as human factors (HF) of PA and that there is a phenomenon of cultural risk. HF may pose potential risks to the implementation/effectiveness of PA, and there is an urgent need to explore risk mechanisms of HF in PL. Methods The Perceived PL Instrument (PPLI) was chosen as the instrument to assess the measurement of HF in PA. A sample of 62 physical education/policy specialists was drawn using a simple sampling method. This study introduced the Decision-Making Testing and Evaluation Laboratory (DMTAEL) from a safety culture perspective and constructed the HF Risk Probability Assessment Model (HFRPAM) based on the PPLI's all-cause structure (two stages and six attributes) to quantitatively analyze the risk probability of HF. It then carried out the diagnosis (risk level), identification (risk weights and sensitivity), and optimization (paths) of HF risk probabilities. Results The findings of the study observed that HFRPAM, as a perceived PL result of HF of PA, may be characterized by a risk probability. HFRPAM does not have a high-risk level. The risk level for the all-cause structure of HFRPAM was high correlation (≥4) and medium risk level 0.4803 (0.40 p 0.8). Results of the risk levels for high-correlation (≥4) of the secondary and tertiary indicators in the all-causal structure of HFRPAM: CS(X1) core stage has a high-risk level of 0.9838 (0.81 ≤ p ≤ 1.0), which is the highest. CS(X1) core stage is the single HF with the highest risk weight (12.82%). ES03(X8) knowledge and understanding was the HF with the highest sensitivity value/activity (0.3881) and the highest optimization index (0.5106). Conclusion The results indicate that, as an exploratory study, the quantitative HFRPAM calculation method proposed in this study can serve as a knowledge translation for current structural models of perceived PA, providing a beneficial behavioral framework to complement the scientific validity of HF in the context of PA.