Open-pit mining and latent rural depopulation and corporate energy transition

Corporate energy transition implies expansion of open-pit mining projects to obtain critical minerals in countries of the Global South, which increases biophysical and social risks in diverse rural territories. This causes demographic declines which are verifiable in population censuses or the configuration of scenarios prone to future depopulation in what is called latent rural depopulation. The objective was to analyze the local narratives of the advance of open-pit mining in a territory and the propensity to abandon it. A qualitative and prospective method was used in three locations in Chile where mining projects have not materialized: Dominga, Vizcachitas and Módulo Penco. Results show narratives of mining threats to social, economic and environmental viability and the continuity of local livelihoods. Concerns arise about air, soil and water contamination, the complication of the water crisis and impacts on livelihood activities such as fishing and agriculture. There are also concerns about the arrival of foreign workers, associated with the disruption of social fabric, security concerns, and the cost of living. These elements result in scenarios where people consider the possibility of migrating. The groups most likely to migrate are young people and middle-class families, while older adults and vulnerable people face greater difficulties in relocating. Therefore, latent rural depopulation is a crucial concept to study the contrasts between "green growth" and the realities in the extraction localities, evidencing limitations in the decarbonization strategy and the need to build socio-ecologically fairer transitions for local populations.