This study presents a bottom-up framework for estimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from private car travel in the West Midlands, UK. The framework integrates synthetic population data to define individual driving agents, combined with vehicle fleet composition, official emission intensity factors, and a multimodal routing engine to produce fine-grained spatio-temporal emissions estimates within 1% error from official estimates. Emissions are disaggregated into direct (Scope 1) and indirect (Scope 2) components, providing a comprehensive view of the implications of vehicle electrification. The study explores the impact of car electrification on GHG emissions under two scenarios, highlighting the importance of an accelerated and strategic electrification in achieving regional and national net-zero targets within the prescribed timelines.
Boussad et al. (Thu,) studied this question.