Background Retinal neurodegeneration is an early and independent feature of diabetic retinal disease and has been proposed as a window into the systemic neural consequences of diabetes, yet accessible molecular biomarkers and individualized prediction tools remain scarce. We aimed to identify circulating plasma protein signatures of diabetic retinal neurodegeneration (DRN) and to translate them into a clinically usable risk prediction system. Methods and findings In this multi-cohort prospective observational study, we integrated high-throughput plasma proteomics with longitudinal optical coherence tomography (OCT) in two independent populations. The discovery cohort comprised 1,492 participants had baseline plasma proteomics and OCT, and 1,218 were followed with repeated OCT over 6 years in Guangzhou Diabetic Eye Study (GDES). DRN was quantified by the annualized OCT-derived retinal nerve fiber layer thinning rate. In multivariable analyses adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c, and diabetes duration, we identified 71 plasma proteins associated with development and progression of DRN. These proteins mapped onto pathways governing inflammatory immune recruitment, extracellular matrix remodeling, and microvascular homeostasis, providing a plausible biological basis for DRN. We developed a proteomics-based DRN model (Pro-DRN) using eight machine learning (ML) algorithms, including XGBoost and LightGBM. In the independent test set, Pro-DRN achieved a C-index of 0.860, rising to 0.908 when integrated with clinical variables. Compared with six conventional models, Pro-DRN improved discrimination (ΔC-index 0.137 to 0.159; all P < 0.001), reclassification (IDI 0.212 to 0.245; NRI 0.226 to 0.452; all P < 0.05). In the Hippisley model, the C-index increased from 0.739 (95% CI 0.670, 0.808) to 0.898 (95% CI 0.858, 0.937), with IDI 0.245 (95% CI 0.177, 0.318), NRI 0.452 (95% CI 0.222, 0.673) (both P < 0.001), and higher net benefit. The proteins most consistently driving model performance included ACTA2, COL6A3, and HSPG2. For clinical translation, we deployed the locked model as an interactive, web-based risk-assessment tool to support early DRN screening and longitudinal monitoring. Cross-ethnic external validation in UK Biobank ( n = 502; recruited 2006–2010) reproduced core protein signals and consistent effect directions, confirming robustness across populations. Principal methodological limitation lies in single time point proteomic assessment. Conclusion In this multi-cohort study, we present a proteomics- and ML–based precision prediction system for DRN. Pro-DRN substantially enhanced early risk stratification beyond conventional clinical factors and may support targeted screening and timely neuroprotective interventions, advancing molecularly guided strategies for diabetic eye disease prevention.
Li et al. (Tue,) studied this question.