Predicting habitat suitability of selected Meloidae species and future potential refugia: A case study from inner Western Anatolia

Abstract Climate change poses substantial threats to biodiversity in ecologically transitional regions, making the identification of potential climate refugia for vulnerable insect taxa essential for conservation planning. Here, we provide the first multi‐species assessment of climate‐driven suitable habitats shifts for Meloidae beetles in the Inner Western Anatolia sub‐region of Türkiye. We modelled the current and future distributions of eight ecologically diverse Meloidae species using ecological niche models (ENMs) based on bioclimatic, topographic and land‐cover predictors under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5). Our projections revealed highly heterogeneous responses among species; widespread taxa like Mylabris variabilis exhibited potential for elevational shifts within the study area, whereas Alosimus chalybaeus faced severe range contractions, particularly under the high‐emission scenario. Overlay analyses identified mountain systems such as Domaniç, Eğrigöz and Murat as robust multi‐species refugia likely to retain climatic suitability under both future scenarios, though other high‐elevation systems lost this buffering capacity under severe warming. Critically, we address the paradox that many predicted refugia are currently dominated by dense forests unsuitable for these heliophilic, open‐habitat beetles, arguing that their future suitability is contingent on climate‐driven vegetation shifts—such as increased wildfire and pest outbreaks—that can convert closed‐canopy forests into favourable open habitats. Despite limitations inherent to ENMs, our findings offer a spatially explicit framework for identifying and prioritizing conservation areas, underscoring the necessity of integrating future ecosystem dynamics into climate change refugia planning.