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Small Mediterranean islands relying on the sun–sea–sand (3S) tourism model face growing climate risks that threaten their tourism-dependent economies. This study evaluates climate suitability for 3S tourism on the Island of Vis by integrating the Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) with land- use and land-cover (LU/LC) spatial analysis. The integration is operationalized by overlaying CIT-derived seasonal suitability windows with LU/LC-based spatial vulnerability maps, enabling identification of micro-zones where natural buffers (forest cover and elevation) can offset thermal discomfort during peak heat stress periods. Observed data reveals declining ideal 3S conditions from July to October, with the island already exceeding 50 days per year of Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) above 35.1 °C, increasing by 0.7 days per year. Regional climate models tend to exhibit a cold bias over small Adriatic islands, largely related to their limited spatial horizontal resolution (12.5 km grid spacing). However, they robustly reproduce the direction of recent and projected warming trends. Future projections indicate that the annual number of strong heat stress days with PET above 35.1 °C increase from approximately one per year in the reference period to six under RCP4.5 and nine under RCP8.5, with both scenarios reducing ideal peak-summer conditions while extending favorable periods into transitional seasons. Spatial analysis shows that coastal zones have higher sealed surfaces and less forest cover, reducing natural shade and cooling capacity, while the island interior offers higher elevations, forest buffers, hiking trails, and a UNESCO Global Geopark. Drawing on social–ecological resilience theory, we conceptualize the island’s tourism system as an adaptive unit whose long-term viability depends on spatially diversified resource use and temporally extended seasonality. The integrated analytical framework identifies not only when conditions deteriorate but where alternative tourism resources exist, enabling more targeted adaptation planning and supporting diversification toward outdoor tourism forms. The novelty of this study lies in the systematic spatial integration of bioclimatic suitability assessments (CIT and PET) with LU/LC analysis at the micro-island scale. Such an approach moves beyond temporally focused climate–tourism indices to produce actionable, location-specific adaptation strategies.
Mira et al. (Wed,) studied this question.