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Amid global overcapacity and AI proliferation, equipment manufacturers confront a critical challenge: does digital transformation (DT) create competitive advantages or merely accelerate existing problems? This study reconceptualizes DT through a complex adaptive systems (CAS) perspective, where success depends on business units coordinating as adaptive agents rather than IT departments deploying technologies. We investigate how configurations of digital technologies and strategic orientations activate distinct multi-agent coordination mechanisms, producing differentiated performance outcomes and revealing why certain pathways demonstrate superior long-term stability through emergent organizational capabilities. Analyzing a panel dataset of 552 Chinese equipment manufacturers (2017–2022), this research employs a mixed-methods approach. It first uses fixed-effects regression to establish DT’s net effect on firm performance. Then, it applies natural language processing (NLP) to measure operational management and dynamic fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to identify configurations of DT dimensions (foundation, boundary, application) and strategic orientations leading to high performance. Regression results confirm that business-embedded DT improves firm performance, but the net effects of digital foundation (positive), boundary (insignificant), and application (negative unless supported) diverge sharply. fsQCA identifies five equifinal pathways, highlighting that success depends on aligning DT investments with innovation focus and operational management. Operational-management-oriented configurations demonstrate greater long-term stability, with notable variations across regions and industries. This study emphasizes that effective digital transformation is not a technology-first unified deployment, but a business-driven adaptive evolution process, providing a new theoretical perspective for understanding performance variations in DT.
Wang et al. (Tue,) studied this question.