Precursor of the Eurasian Atmospheric Teleconnection to the Spring Compound Hot‐Dry Event Over North China

Abstract Under global warming, extreme hot and dry events occur more concurrently, forming compound hot‐dry event (CHDE) that poses a critical threat to agricultural activity. North China (NC), a major commodity grain‐producing region, is extensively cultivated with winter wheat. Since the peak water demand period for winter wheat occurs during April–May–June (AMJ), the crop is particularly vulnerable to CHDE, highlighting the importance of research on AMJ CHDE. Results in this study indicate a significant exacerbating trend in CHDE over the past six decades, primarily driven by the warming trend. Mechanism analysis reveals that an Eurasian pattern in AMJ, featured by an anomalous cyclone over the Barents‐Kara (BK) Sea and an anticyclone east of Lake Baikal, is responsible for intensifying NC CHDE. Similarly, a precursor for CHDE in March exhibits an Eurasian dipole atmospheric pattern resembling its AMJ counterpart but with its westmost center displaced westward. However, their relationship is nonlinear, and a significant relationship exists only between their positive phases. The positive Eurasian pattern in March can persist into AMJ and significantly impact NC CHDE; in contrast, the negative pattern shows poor persistence and has a weak impact on downstream climate. Further analysis reveals the crucial roles of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and Siberian soil temperature anomalies in maintaining the positive Eurasian pattern, which is also validated by numerical experiments. The physical linkage between the positive Eurasian pattern in March and the exacerbation of NC CHDE in the AMJ could provide useful predictive information for disaster prevention and mitigation.