Impact of diurnal temperature range, carbon emissions, precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature on corn production system

Corn ( Zea mays L.) is the world's most produced cereal crop, and USA leads the production. Within USA, the state of Missouri has made significant contribution to corn production. However, ongoing climate shifts increasingly threaten crop production. Moreover, the corn-climate relationship in Missouri has been largely unexplored. Therefore, this study quantified climate change trends from 1970 to 2023 during the corn growing season (CGS) in Missouri, applying Mann-Kendall (trend direction) and Sen Slope (trend magnitude) methods. Climate variables analyzed include maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), precipitation (PP), carbon dioxide emissions, and diurnal temperature range (DTR). The climate-crop relationship was also studied using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Additionally, a Pearson correlation analysis was performed between the detrended corn yield and monthly averaged climate variables to identify critical months based on climate-crop interactions. Results revealed that carbon emissions increased significantly by 6.14 MMT decade −1 over the study period; precipitation levels slightly increased non-significantly, except for a notable decline of 0.66 mm month −1 in September. Tmin increased by 0.21 °C decade −1 , with this upward trend more pronounced in June, July, and August. At the same time, DTR decreased significantly by 0.26 °C decade −1 during the CGS. An asymmetric warming was observed, with Tmin warming rate surpassing that of Tmax by 37.67% in the overall warming of the region. Strong negative correlations were found between yield and Tmin in July and August, while positive correlations existed with June–July precipitation; wide DTR and high PP in September further reduced yield. A 1 °C increase in Tmax decreased corn yield by 1.09% in the short term and 0.64% in the long term. The ARDL model accounted for 83.37% of the variation in corn yield over 53 years, emphasizing the strong influence of climate in Missouri. These findings highlight the need for adaptive strategies to address climate change and sustain corn production in Missouri.