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March 15, 2026Open Access

Simulating Institutional Dynamics: A Multi-Agent Framework for Predicting Legal Reform Outcomes Using Extended Phenotype Theory

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Authors

ILIgnacio Adrián LERER

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Overview

Predicts legal reform outcomes in multiple jurisdictions, highlighting institutional dynamics in legal systems.

Key Points

  • The research aims to apply Extended Phenotype Theory to model and predict legal reform outcomes through institutional dynamics.
  • Developed a multi-agent simulation engine based on the OASIS framework.
  • Implemented seven agent types and nine legal actions.
  • Validated the Constitutional Lock-in Index against four jurisdictions.
  • Conducted Monte Carlo simulations on Argentine labor reforms.
  • Achieved an emergent Constitutional Lock-in Index of 0.92, indicating a strong institutional constraint.
  • Demonstrated 93.8% effectiveness in blocking reforms in adversarial scenarios.
  • Cross-validation across 60 cases showed 56.7% accuracy, significantly above baseline.

Cite This Study

Ignacio Adrián LERER (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69b64daeb42794e3e660e45dhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19010940
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