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April 1, 1963Management Science6,121 citations

An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts

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NDNorman C. DalkeyRAND CorporationOHOlaf HelmerUniversity of Southern California

Key Points

  • To evaluate the DELPHI method as a structured technique for deriving reliable consensus from a panel of experts.
  • Conducted an experimental evaluation of the DELPHI procedure with subject-matter experts.
  • Administered sequential, in-depth questionnaires interspersed with controlled summary feedback of group opinions.
  • Demonstrated that controlled feedback across successive survey rounds promotes convergence of expert judgments.
  • Established a systematic framework for eliciting group consensus while mitigating direct interpersonal bias.

Abstract

This paper gives an account of an experiment in the use of the so-called DELPHI method, which was devised in order to obtain the most reliable opinion consensus of a group of experts by subjecting them to a series of questionnaires in depth interspersed with controlled opinion feedback.

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Cite This Study

Dalkey et al. (1963) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69d7ec04f39344339dd18d64https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.3.458
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