A Comprehensive Resilience Assessment Model for Smart Ports: A System Dynamics Simulation of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in the Context of Digital Transformation

As a key node in the global supply chain, the resilience of ports is crucial for coping with multiple risks such as increasingly frequent climate change, operational accidents, and geopolitics, and ensuring the smooth flow of trade and sustainable development. This paper takes Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, which leads the world in throughput, as the research object, aiming to construct a comprehensive port resilience assessment model. Through the system dynamics method, the smart port system is deconstructed into three interrelated subsystems: meteorology, production, and economic-politics, and a simulation model including a causal relationship diagram and a system flow diagram is established accordingly. The model is verified to be effective and robust through historical data testing and sensitivity analysis. By setting different scenarios, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of single and compound risk shocks such as extreme weather, production accidents, and tariff policies on port throughput, and classifies port resilience into three levels: strong, medium, and weak. The research results show that Ningbo-Zhoushan Port shows strong resilience to the above-mentioned single risks. Even when the risk parameters are increased by 100%, the change rate of port throughput is less than the historical average annual change rate by 5.06%. However, in the extreme scenario of multiple risk couplings, the decline in port throughput is more significant, highlighting the importance of coping with compound risks. Further strategy simulation reveals that accelerating the economic development of the hinterland, increasing investment in port infrastructure, increasing the frequency of equipment maintenance, expanding the proportion of high-quality employees, and strengthening public facility management for accurate risk prediction are all effective ways to enhance port resilience. This research provides a scientific decision-making support tool for port managers, and the proposed resilience enhancement strategies have important theoretical and practical significance for ensuring the long-term stable operation of ports and the sustainable development of the regional economy.