Techno-Economic Analysis of Italy’s Energy Transition: Exploring Nuclear and Non-Nuclear Pathways

In recent years, energy systems worldwide have undergone significant transformations as Countries strive to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and transition to cleaner energy sources. Italy has embraced this global shift, setting ambitious goals for energy efficiency and emissions reduction. The updated Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) outlines strategies to promote sustainability while addressing energy security challenges. The Plan considers two scenarios: the “No Nuclear” scenario, which relies on renewables and gas/bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and the “With Nuclear” scenario, which incorporates nuclear energy, capped at 8 GW by 2050, alongside other technologies. Both scenarios foresee a future characterized by extensive electrification. This study aims to evaluate the techno-economic implications of Italy's updated Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan by comparing two proposed scenarios to determine their effectiveness in achieving energy balance, cost-efficiency, and environmental sustainability in a highly electrified future condition. The study analyzes these scenarios using EnergyPLAN software, applying an hour-by-hour approach for detailed modeling. Results demonstrate that integrating non-programmable renewables with programmable low-carbon sources, such as nuclear energy, can significantly improve energy balance, reduce costs, and minimize environmental impacts. The use of nuclear energy can decrease CO2 emissions by nearly 7 Mtons annually.