Are green firebreaks a useful fire management tool under climate change in southeastern Australia?

Fire management under changing climatic conditions presents several challenges, including the need to manage fire regimes for multiple objectives, such as reducing risk to people while also protecting or maintaining the environment. One approach that could be added to existing management toolkits is green firebreaks. Green firebreaks are strategically placed low flammability plantings aimed at improving habitat and carbon storage while reducing fire risk. However, green firebreaks have not yet been explored in the context of shifting climates. Here, we use spatially explicit fire simulations in a fire regime simulation tool (FROST) to test green firebreak effectiveness under climate change across five landscapes in south-eastern Australia. We simulated fire regimes with and without green firebreaks and in conjunction with prescribed burning in the surrounding landscape. We evaluated effectiveness by examining changes in area burnt, fire frequency, and risk to people, property and the environment. In three out of the five regions, annual area burnt was predicted to increase under future climate trajectories and in most regions the introduction of green firebreaks decreased area burnt in one or both climate epochs but often resulted in increased fire frequency. When both green firebreaks and prescribed burns were used, area burnt, and fire frequency declined in most regions. Results were variable between climate models, reflecting how changes in precipitation and fuel load influenced management effectiveness i.e. prescribed burns and green firebreaks, under future climate predictions. Risks to people and property generally increased slightly with green firebreaks because additional fuel was introduced into the landscape. However, these risks were also negated when prescribed burning was also applied. As a stand-alone fire management method, green firebreaks may not be suitable for every location. However, when used in conjunction with other methods, such as prescribed burning, they could be a viable solution for managing fire and providing co-benefits to the environment.