A Novel Decomposition-Prediction Framework for Predicting InSAR-Derived Ground Displacement: A Case Study of the XMLC Landslide in China

Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is an advanced imaging geodesy technique for detecting and characterizing surface deformation with high spatial resolution and broad spatial coverage. However, as an inherently post-event observation method, InSAR suffers from limited capability for near-real-time and short-term updates of deformation time series. In this paper, we proposed a data-driven adaptive framework for deformation prediction based on a hybrid deep learning method to accurately predict the InSAR-derived deformation time series and take the Xi’erguazi−Mawo landslide complex (XMLC) as a case study. The InSAR-derived time series was initially decomposed into trend and periodic components with a two-step decomposition process, which were thereafter modeled separately to enhance the characterization of motion kinematics and prediction accuracy. After retrieving the observations from the multi-temporal InSAR method, two-step signal decomposition was then performed using the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD). The decomposed trend and periodic components were further evaluated using statistical hypothesis testing to verify their significance and reliability. Compared with the single-decomposition model, the further decomposition leads to an overall improvement in prediction accuracy, i.e., the Mean Absolute Errors (MAEs) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) are reduced by 40–49% and 36–42%, respectively. Subsequently, the Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network and the proposed CNN-BiLSTM-SelfAttention (CBS) models were constructed to predict the trend and periodic variations, respectively. The CNN and self-attention help to extract local features in time series and strengthen the ability to capture global dependencies and key fluctuation patterns. Compared with the single network model in prediction, the MAEs and RMSEs are reduced by 22–57% and 4–33%, respectively. Finally, the two predicted components were integrated to generate the fused deformation prediction results. Ablation experiments and comparative experiments show that the proposed method has superior ability. Through rapid and accurate prediction of InSAR-derived deformation time series, this research could contribute to the early-warning systems of slope instabilities.