Indigenous promotion in Bolivia : A subnational quantitative analysis of social justice outcomes of Bolivia’s 2009 constitutional reform

South American states increasingly address environmental change and sustainable development alongside indigenous social justice. In Bolivia, indigenous rights and social justice have been formally strengthened through the nation’s 2009 constitutional reform, yet empirical evidence on its outcomes remains limited. This study examines whether the constitutional reform translated into improved social justice outcomes for indigenous communities on a subnational level. It applies the capabilities approach as an analytical framework, focusing on how formal rights are realised as actual opportunities to live dignified and self-determined lives. Using municipal-level panel data from 2007–2020, the study conducts ordinary least squares (OLS) and interrupted time series (ITS) regressions to examine how constitutional outcomes are distributed across municipalities. Environmental, health and education outcomes are operationalised through standardised indexes, analysed in relation to indigenous population share and regional differences. The findings indicate heterogeneous post-reform outcomes across regions and capabilities, suggesting that national improvements cannot be automatically applied to indigenous communities. They highlight that formal recognition and an indigenous national identity alone are insufficient to ensure actual improvements in indigenous social justice, illuminating the importance of institutional resources and local context in its manifestations.